Now The Race Begins

Allow me to bask in my "I Told You So" moment as Barack Obama's victory in Iowa failed to equal a win in New Hampshire. He lost to Hillary Clinton by 3% despite leading by an avg. of 8% in the polls (Polls from Real Clear Politics). That is a 11% differential. Quite a comeback for the wife of the Comeback Kid. Not only is Hillary feeling the jubilation of a revitalized campaign she now has the coveted media storyline her campaign always dreamed up. Rather then being the establishment candidate of inevitability, she is now the comeback queen.

Barack Obama now has a serious problem on his hand. Facing a resurgent Hillary, media scrutiny into his qualifications, and growing questions about his New Hampshire loss Obama has taken a turn into political Limbo. As previously stated this is not to indicate he is finished as a National Candidate it merely constitutes a slightly rockier road to the nomination. The best part of this week has been watching 7 out of 10 pundits proclaim the death of Hillary only to watch her surge to victory in a state she was predicted to lose by 8% or more. Now some people are wondering what killed the Obama bounce. The answer is the same thing that derailed Kerry in 2004, the fickle nature of young voters.

Obama had been counting on a huge turnout from the youth of New Hampshire. Most sources indicate however that no such surge occurred. The same level of young people who voted in 2000 and 2004 voted in 2008. The fact is young voters are very interesting voting bloc. Every four years we see efforts like "Rock the Vote' or "Vote or Die" which aim at registering America's youth to vote. However this has yet to materialize into a substantial electoral result, this years Iowa caucus being the exception. Now it could very well be that the youth comes out in droves and eventual propels Obama to the nomination. They could also stay home and doom Obama to defeat. In my humble opinion support from America's youth is important but its value is not to be overplayed.

The Results on the GOP side were far less dramatic. John McCain, as expected, caped off his New Hampshire comeback with a win over Mitt Romney by 5%. This did little to help or hurt Mike Huckabee, it dose however revitalize a once near dead McCain. The key is whether or not he can raise the necessary funds to compete on the National level. It looks based on last months numbers that he may be well on his way. The race is now, baring a Thompson/Romney comeback in SC, a three way contest between Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani. At this point its advantage McCain but as we all know nothing in this race is a sure thing.

On a side note do not discount the possibility of Giuliani rebirth. He still polls well in Florida, and while McCain, Huckabee, and Romney battle for supremacy in South Carolina, you will find Giuliani strengthening his lead in Florida trough speech's and a rigorous ad campaign. Also as noted by a pundit on the night of New Hampshire the endorsements of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity are still up for grabs. If Romney is slain Giuliani will become the most appealing option for conservative host and he may pick up those endorsements in an attempt for the conservative big wigs to destroy McCain-Huckabee.

Remember stop reading predictions and speculation because it was made clear last night that none of that matters. The only thing that will determine this race is the voters.